With 2012 elections heating up, it's coming down to decision time to see who will be running in the Republican primaries. Not many candidates have stepped forward with bids to run, so Newt Gingrich's decision to form a fund-raising committee is about the most convincing call to arms yet.[1] With years of experience and a solid Republican sponsors to his name, Gingrich is a strong contender to earn the nomination from the Republican party. Republicans will be looking for a strong candidate to run against Obama, and the return of the former Speaker of the House would be the logical, though not perfect, fit for that nomination.
In his day, Gingrich--most famous for his strong opposition to President Clinton--was a prominent figurehead of the Republican Party.[2] His fierce standings will give him a decided advantage in this election, as many republicans have been looking for a strong leader to balance out the powerful personality of Obama. Without a "big name" figure, the Republicans will not stand a chance at ousting the President with the established support he currently possesses.[3] This gives him an edge over many other potential candidates; nameless figures like Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, or Mitch Daniels have nowhere near the spotlight Gingrich has had in years in Congress. Even the bigger names like Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney have shorter records as governors of their states than Gingrich had in the House.[4][5][6]
His main competitor, Mitt Romney, will be an interesting match up. Romney's experience and degrees in business will become a major factor in his campaign as the economy becomes an increasingly more important issue to the 2012 campaigns.[5] However, he is still fighting an uphill battle against negative opinions about his religion and his health care policies among conservative republicans. With a large percentage of people holding negative opinions towards LDS politicians (25% --- the second highest opposed religion after Islam), a large portion of the conservative ticket is slowly lost from Romney's support group.[7] Also, Romney's record as a moderate might look good for a national Presidential election, but state level primary elections are more difficult.[8] Passing health care reform with many similarities to "Obama-care" could prove to be fatal in the final days of the primaries. This gives Gingrich the advantage of winning the nomination in the primary. He is considered very conservative in his views, and is a favorite in the rising Tea Party Movement. This momentum might give him the extra boost to start his campaign well to stomp out any competition early on. In the primary, Gingrich's biggest challenge is to overcome the recently released extramarital affairs. If he can persuade those conservatives turned off by that, he has a good shot at earning the nomination.
Gingrich's strong conservative credentials, however, will be one of his greatest weaknesses. Although he will be very popular among conservative Republicans during the primaries, the general election will run quite differently. Typically general elections tend to favor moderate candidates that are positioned only to the slight left or right of center.[9] Obama, a relatively moderate democrat, while Newt Gingrich, is perceived to be quite conservative. His candidacy will do more to rally the Democratic base and scare away moderate Republicans. This puts Gingrich at a decisive disadvantage to Obama, as it is difficult to remove an incumbent with a strong approval rating for a second term (similar to the situation George W. Bush had during his reelection). The best idea to combat this anti-extreme is to run with a moderate Vice President with strong qualifications. This might lead to the selection of a running mate like Mitt Romney; however, as they are both top contenders, a contentious primary season would make this ticket highly unlikely. Without a strong running mate, it is unlikely that Newt Gingrich would win the 2012 Presidential election.
[1] http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/03/03/gingrich-dips-toe-in-2012-waterswith-a-website/
[2] http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/260535/revisiting-clinton-gingrich-showdown-ramesh-ponnuru
[3] http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/18/cnn-poll-obamas-job-approval-rating-on-the-rise/
[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newt_Gingrich
[5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney
[6] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee
[7] http://pewresearch.org/pubs/648/romney-mormon
[8] http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/261407/re-mitt-romney-health-care-daniel-foster
[9] Dr. Monson, February 2011,W111-BNSN-BYU, class lectures
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